In fact, 7 girls liked the cake and 1 didn't That's a pretty extreme result for a 50% probability Is it actually compatible with a true population probability of 50%? 1st 2nd boy girl boy seen boy boy boy seen girl boy the net effect is that even if i don't know which one is definitely a boy, the other child can only be a girl or a boy and that is always and only a 1/2 probability (ignoring any biological weighting that girls may represent 51% of births or whatever the reality is). Probability of having 2 girls and probability of having at least one girl ask question asked 8 years, 2 months ago modified 8 years, 2 months ago Expected girls from one couple$ {}=0.5\cdot1 + 0.25\cdot1 =0.75$ expected boys from one couple$ {}=0.25\cdot1 + 0.25\cdot2 =0.75$ 1 as i said this works for any reasonable rule that could exist in the real world
An unreasonable rule would be one in which the expected children per couple was infinite. A couple decides to keep having children until they have the same number of boys and girls, and then stop Assume they never have twins, that the trials are independent with probability 1/2 of a boy, and that they are fertile enough to keep producing children indefinitely. A couple decides to keep having children until they have at least one boy and at least one girl, and then stop Assume they never have twi. In how many different ways can 5 people sit around a round table
If the symmetry of the table is not taken into account the. Suppose i want to build a model to predict some kind of ratio or percentage For example, let's say i want to predict the number of boys vs Girls who will attend a party, and features of the party. The information that at least one is a boy, however that has been decided to make that statement, does certainly exclude the probability of two girls The information about the day is seemingly not important)
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