A = adults rv = registered voters v = voters lv = likely voters is it correct that "lv" Is a proper subset of "rv&quo. In 538's election forecast, states are highlighted as either having the closest races or being close to the tipping point What is the difference between these two categories? 538 pays a lot of attention to the quality, decay, and noise from polling data In comparison to the 538 model, the economist model uses less fat tails
Things that, although they are unlikely, would have a big impact on the polls. In ' dems can take the house back in 60 days ' a youtube podcaster argues that via the three upcoming special elections (1 in new york and 2 in florida) democrats could take the house back by winning just 2 of them This would imply that democrats are only 2 seats behind republicans But, when i look this up, i see that there are 215 democrats and 218 republicans with just 2 vacancies, which. I just read this wikipedia article It says trump won with a 304 to 227 for electoral votes
But the total number should be 538 Where did the 7 votes go? 7 mostly the (decennial) census generally, the electoral formula is electoral votes = representatives + senators Each state has two senators, so that's 100 of the 538 total electoral votes Washington dc gets three electors While they technically have shadow congresspeople, those don't get to vote in the house or senate.
This was actually one of the reasons that 538 originally started combining multiple polls into weighted aggregates To increase the overall reliability The fact that even 538 seems to no longer be doing their aggregates for senate races, and is now even burying the margin of error/quality information 3 to 5 clicks deep is sad indeed.
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